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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-11-10T20:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-10T20:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27666/-1
CME Note: Faint and wide CME seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and after a data gap in STEREO A COR2 in difference imagery. There appears to be a shock and bulk portion to this CME, with the shock exhibiting more of a dimpled front, possibly due to an emerging feature to the NW overlapping the upper left-hand portion of the CME. This doesn't appear to impact the trailing front or "bulk" portion of the CME. The source of this CME appears to be an eruption in the southwest quadrant of the Earth-facing disk near Active Regions 13484, 13477, and newly numbered AR 13485. Noticeable moving/opening field lines are seen in SDO/AIA 193, 211, and GOES SUVI 284 starting around 2023-11-10T18:34Z. Dimming is also visible in SDO/AIA 211 starting around 2023-11-10T19:29Z with wide and brief potential post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2023-11-10T21:00Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-15T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-11-11 06:33
Radial velocity (km/s): 378
Longitude (deg): 36W
Latitude (deg): 6S
Half-angular width (deg): 29

Notes: This is an average of several attempted fits to the CME. 
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 78.83 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-11-12T05:10Z

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